Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 20.361103 22.179603 24.194166 26.613343 29.469682 32.774394 36.947543
2024-12-29 17.590139 19.961018 22.785565 26.476371 31.298706 37.588366 46.803869
2025-01-05 15.730681 18.378846 21.706317 26.348987 32.948262 42.542157 58.884609
2025-01-12 14.211557 16.948347 20.521413 25.758461 33.717536 46.412351 71.372712
2025-01-19 13.585364 16.554433 20.592699 26.844660 37.120525 55.547074 100.048278
2025-01-26 12.701070 15.695383 19.879676 26.604971 38.298605 61.255828 127.836910
2025-02-02 12.055935 15.091432 19.441460 26.688162 40.014399 68.824055 173.524902
2025-02-09 11.543999 14.621306 19.134804 26.912943 42.026936 78.200292 253.244835
2025-02-16 11.065417 14.154088 18.774376 26.974366 43.719915 87.945013 391.266502
2025-02-23 10.562961 13.611073 18.238686 26.638915 44.480680 95.678769 611.276044
2025-03-02 10.187808 13.231001 17.925224 26.658985 46.048230 107.521351 1324.543654
2025-03-09 9.804907 12.812892 17.511933 26.430743 46.973781 118.152592 4560.535879
2025-03-16 9.436315 12.400561 17.084947 26.141080 47.740641 129.592555 NaN
2025-03-23 9.109654 12.035643 16.711091 25.913480 48.639689 143.396522 NaN
2025-03-30 8.820992 11.714623 16.388266 25.750399 49.695392 160.388622 NaN
2025-04-06 8.488613 11.307589 15.889673 25.165495 49.402218 169.201093 NaN
2025-04-13 8.427530 11.330261 16.140791 26.201687 54.348625 230.975852 NaN
2025-04-20 8.186212 11.048021 15.829266 25.968317 55.199375 261.937151 NaN
2025-04-27 8.004594 10.854710 15.665055 26.046780 57.171662 318.905848 NaN
2025-05-04 7.852700 10.702871 15.565694 26.261903 59.755731 411.494141 NaN
2025-05-11 7.690195 10.525769 15.407778 26.320580 61.815933 530.343231 NaN
2025-05-18 7.490852 10.278808 15.104980 25.998539 62.272921 625.892074 NaN
2025-05-25 7.343692 10.114061 14.948128 26.017756 64.208369 857.282962 NaN